Overview
Baseline provides historical context for a player's current Intelligence profile.
Rather than asking whether the player improved from the previous game, Baseline compares his current-season profile with a reference from his previous completed NFL season.
How does the player's current season compare with the level he established last season?
Where Baseline Is Used
Baseline is available in:
- Receiving Intelligence
- Rushing Intelligence
- Passing Intelligence
Each engine uses its corresponding live analytical model to create a comparable previous-season reference.
Baseline is not part of Historical Intelligence or Dynasty Market.
Why Baseline Exists
Current performance can be difficult to interpret without a personal reference point.
A player with an Overall Score of 82 may be showing meaningful improvement if his previous-season reference was 68. Conversely, an Overall Score of 88 may represent a decline if the same player previously established a much stronger profile.
Baseline provides that historical anchor, allowing users to judge improvement or regression relative to the player's own established level.
A Personal Reference Point
Unlike Team Context and Overall Score, Baseline is not primarily a comparison with teammates or current league peers.
It compares the player's current profile with his own previous-season reference.
Baseline represents the player's previous completed-season reference within the same live Intelligence model.
How to Interpret Baseline
A positive Baseline Difference indicates that the player's current profile is stronger than his previous-season reference.
A negative Baseline Difference indicates that the current profile remains below that reference.
A value close to zero suggests that the player is performing at approximately the same level as last season.
Baseline measures the size of the difference. It does not explain whether the player is currently moving upward or downward.
Baseline and OTI
Baseline and the Overall Trend Index (OTI) answer different questions.
OTI measures direction.
Baseline measures distance.
A player may have a strong positive OTI while still remaining below his previous baseline because he is recovering after a slow start.
Likewise, a player may remain above his previous baseline despite a negative OTI if his current profile is declining from an already elevated level.
The two measurements are designed to complement one another.
Use OTI to understand where the profile is moving. Use Baseline to understand where the current profile stands relative to last season.
Baseline and Projection
Baseline describes where the player stands today relative to his previous completed season.
Projection illustrates what the player's season could look like if the current pace continues.
One explains the present relative to the past. The other illustrates a possible future outcome.
When Baseline Is Unavailable
A Baseline may not be displayed when NFL Fantasy Mate does not have a suitable previous-season reference.
This may occur for:
- rookies;
- players without a qualifying previous season;
- players whose previous data cannot support a comparable profile.
An unavailable Baseline does not represent zero and should not be interpreted as regression.
How to Use Baseline
- Review the Overall Score and category profile.
- Compare the current profile with Baseline.
- Use Trend Strength or OTI to understand direction.
- Add Team Context, Projection and Reliability where available.
This combination provides more context than any individual indicator alone.
What Baseline Is Not
Baseline is not:
- a projection;
- a league ranking;
- a teammate comparison;
- a dynasty market evaluation;
- a measure of recent movement.
Its purpose is to compare the player's current-season profile with his own previous-season reference.
Do not read Baseline as a league-wide comparison. It compares the player with his own previous completed-season profile.